Cantor Says No?

Hey, I've been busy the past few days and unable to comment on Eric Cantor's apparent decision not to run for the open Senate seat from Virginia. (The online petition that Mason Conservative and Bearing Drift started has been yanked out of cyberspace.) Really unfortunate. It's fine for Cantor to support Gilmore, but that will never be the same as Cantor taking the plunge himself. For the Rs to be able to beat Mark Warner, they'll need to run smart. And Cantor is an ideas guy. Cantor offering his own ideas for Gilmore to use (to the extent they're both willing) is not the same as Cantor poking Gilmore in the eye with his ideas. While Gilmore is very good on taxes, he sometimes falls into the trap of thinking that he can attract left-leaning voters by offering democrat lite. And for sure WaPo and the rest of the establishment media will be yammering about how the republicans need to be more like the democrats to win. This never works. It suppresses the republican turn out with no gain -- voters that want democrats are going to vote democrat. Had Cantor been in the race, it would have been very hard for Gilmore to fall into the trap of running to the left. Maybe Bob Marshall or Chris Saxman will be able to fill the void left by Cantor. Color me skeptical.

Run Eric, Run

The blogosphere in Virginia is trying to draft Eric Cantor into the race for the republican nomination for U.S. Senator from Virginia. The Mason Conservative, Bearing Drift, and the Right-Wing Liberal are all encouraging Cantor to run. We here at DC Politics News hope Cantor answers the call. Jim Gilmore is an excellent candidate who, in our opinion, has a good chance to beat Mark Warner. Eric Cantor, however, is a rock star (at least among VA repubs) -- read the Weekly Standard's piece on him here. He would inject energy, ideas and, frankly, a bit of drama into what would otherwise be a Jim Gilmore coronation at the Republican convention next year. Cantor's entry into the race would force Gilmore to become an even better candidate and would likely cause more Virginians to focus on the race. The Rs desperately need to hang on to this Senate seat after a string of dispiriting losses in Virginia. Cantor's entry into the race makes that much more likely. If you agree, you can do your bit to encourage Cantor by signing an online petition here.

Heed the call Eric. Run!

Congratulations to Tim Kaine & Co.

To the surprise of no one, the Democrats have eked out a majority in the Virginia Senate. Congratulations to those who worked so hard for this. WaPo has excellent coverage of the races. Although WaPo is strangely fixated on illegal immigration in a front-page piece declaring that the results prove that the voters don't care about that issue, or at least don't care about it enough to vote for republicans. Amy Gardner expands on her thesis to make broad conclusions about the state of the republican party in the Commonwealth:

The returns provided the sharpest evidence yet that Democratic gains in recent state elections represented more than a temporary dip in Republicans' popularity. Yesterday's initial results showed that a more long-term structural realignment may be occurring and that voters are increasingly drawn by Democrats' promises to improve schools and ease traffic and away from Republican conservatism on such issues as taxes and social policy, particularly in fast-growing Northern Virginia.

Ms. Gardner may be right. Or it may be that voters are upset about the republican candidates' stands on core republican issues like taxation and unhappy with some of their candidates for other reasons (see below). Or it may be that demographics are catching up with the GOP in VA. Though I have no data to back it up, doesn't it seem to be the case that as areas of the country become more urban, they trend towards the Democrats? (Think New York City.) And it is certainly the case that both the DC suburbs in Northern Virginia, as well as the Hampton Roads area around Virginia Beach are becoming more urban (or at least more densely populated). It may be that the republicans in Virginia need to rethink how they approach the electorate (think Rudy Giuliani). (So am I supporting Ms. Gardner's point or am I disuputing it -- no clear answers!)

And although I have mostly ignored them, there were also elections in Maryland yesterday.

Get Ready to Vote in VA

Add the Roanoke Times to the list of publications that seem to think the VA Senate will be turning blue on Tuesday:

Democrats must pick up four Senate seats to gain a majority. Strategists in both parties said late last week that nine races remained competitive, including the contest for an open seat between Republican Ralph Smith of Botetourt County and Democrat Mike Breiner of Roanoke County. All but one of the hot races are in districts now represented by Republicans.

And this:

But shifting voting patterns in the fast-growing regions of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the elections of Kaine and his Democratic predecessor, Mark Warner, and growing dissatisfaction with President Bush have changed the climate for Democrats in the state, party leaders said.

"Maybe there had been a little bit of a reflexive reaction against Democratic candidates in some parts of the state in the past," Kaine said in an interview Thursday. "But now I think voters are very open to Democratic candidates if they talk common sense about solving problems."

The same story is running in Fredericksburg and as we noted below, has been covered closely by WaPo. Though WaPo (as well as the Richmond Times Dispatch) is spilling some ink on the race being run by state senator Jeannemarie Devolites Davis wife of U.S. Congressman Tom Davis. In particular, they are pondering whether Tom illegally provided funds to Jeannemarie. According to WaPo's Marc Fisher:

So her husband is pulling out all the stops. He poured $414,000 of resources from his own campaign funds into his wife's coffers in October, accounting for more than 80 percent of the senator's receipts in the run-up to Election Day. Much of that money came in the form of purchases of TV time by Congressman Davis's campaign. If you had contributed to Tom Davis's campaign, would you want your dollars going to Jeannemarie Davis's last-minute efforts to save her seat?

From Marc Fisher's lips to the FEC's ear. The lefty blogs are all over a complaint filed by the Dem party in VA about Tom's generosity with his campaign funds.

Don't forget about the city and county elections in Virginia as well. Now go vote!

11/06 UPDATE: If you need any last minute voting tips, WaPo offers its endorsements here. If you want results, start looking here after the polls close at 7:00. If you're looking for a way to kill time, we suggest you look here.

Republicans Poised to Lose VA Senate?

RealClearPolitics has an interesting article analyzing the prospects of the Republicans losing their six-seat majority in the Virginia Senate.

10/30 UPDATE: WaPo provides its take on the Virginia Senate race in a front page story highlighting Gov Tim Kaine's efforts to unseat Republicans. Buried in the article is an interesting angle that explains why the Republicans should lose:

Kaine's push to defeat Republicans in the General Assembly began last year, his first as governor, when he was trying to enact a statewide tax increase to pay for transportation improvements. Although he found GOP allies in the Senate, the House leadership balked, which prompted a budget impasse that almost forced a government shutdown. During the battle, top Senate leaders tried to get assurances from Kaine that he would not target them in 2007 if they continued to work with him to enact his transportation proposal.

So the Republicans were happy to go along with Kaine's proposal to raise taxes, as long as he agreed to let them keep their seats. Wow. Good for Tim Kaine for not going along. Here's hoping they all lose.

Alumni Pork

Hey guess what? You sent a hefty contribution of $6.4 million to Marshall University in West Virginia. You also made a generous donation of $11 million to the University of Alabama. Bet you didn't even realize it. The Examiner has a useful article shedding light on the ethically questionable practice of Senators earmarking funds for their alma maters. I guess the earmark reform that Congress vowed to pass has yet to kick in.